The Minnesota Statewide Longitudinal Education Data System (SLEDS) just released their data on college enrollment for the class of 2019. I always find it interesting to see what it can tell us about our recent graduating classes. Some of it is predictable or matches well other data we've collected, such as from surveys of our seniors just prior to graduation, but this data set is especially helpful because it shows where our students actually ended up, rather than where they tell us they are going. Our survey data at the high school is always impacted by a bit of "summer melt" as students reconsider their options over the summer and we never get to 100% on our survey response rates.
Some things I can count on before looking at the data, but I can quantify it more precisely now. For instance, I will gladly take a bet that I can already confidently state the top two destinations of our 2021 graduates, and probably of our 2022 graduates, even with COVID adding a fair amount of unpredictability to college decision making. It just hasn't changed that much - between 2015 and 2019 the percentage of our graduating class attending RCTC ranged from 17-23%. For the University of Minnesota -Twin Cities, our number two destination, the percentages varied between 9-13%. So we're quite consistent in sending around a fifth our graduates to RCTC and around a tenth of them to the U of MN. However, don't ask me to predict the number three destination - that changes just about every year and also fluctuates wildly in the number of students choosing the third most popular option. Mankato, Winona, Iowa State, and UW - Eau Claire have all been in the number three spot in the last few years but have also all fallen out of the top five some years as well. The highest percentage of our students going to an individual school that wasn't RCTC or the U of MN was in 2019 when 8% of our graduating class went to Mankato. That was perhaps the most surprising thing I found on SLEDS as I don't remember the numbers coming through quite that high on our internal survey, perhaps I missed a senior class meeting late in the year when Principal Fogarty fondly recalled his time playing football there and swayed some late deciders...
Overall, we're pretty consistent in the numbers going on to college - over 80% of our graduates have tended to go directly to college the fall after graduation for many years. I expect we will see this number fall off a bit for the class of 2020 when we get next year's SLEDS data, though, as colleges across the country have reported dips in enrollment due to COVID. What about non-college options? For the class of 2018, SLEDS shows that 80% had enrolled the fall immediately after graduation, while another 3% enrolled within a year of graduation and another 4% within two years, suggesting around 7% of our graduates are taking a gap semester, year, or slightly longer to work or accomplish other goals prior to starting college. Our internal survey data shows anywhere from 1-6% joining the military directly after graduating depending on the year, though with many of them serving part time in the Guard or Reserve there is some double counting of these students in both the military and the college numbers. Unfortunately, SLEDS does not provide information on military service, only educational enrollment so I'm relying on some rougher numbers there. For going from high school to work, my best estimate is around 10-12% of our students are joining the non-military workforce directly from high school without going to college within a couple years of graduation; although in many cases these students are pursuing an apprenticeship or shorter term training that doesn't show up in the college enrollment data.
If you want to look up more information from SLEDS about Century or about any other school in Minnesota, you can find it here: SLEDS
